A paper by Ferreira and Gyourko (2011)* shows the real estate booms in some cities started in 1997-1999 and grew slowly for a while before taking off.

I wanted to see how the booms developed from the very beginning so I moved the Case-Shiller baseline year back to 1995 from 2000.

The authors of that study consider a jump in prices as the beginning of a housing boom. That is, if prices have been increasing at around 3% a year for a few years and then they jump to 6% in one year, that jump is the beginning of the boom.

1995 Baseline – Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Note: Sorry but Case-Shiller doesn’t have data for Dallas before 2000 so I can’t shift the base year back to 1995 for Dallas.

Inflation-Adjusted – 1995 Baseline – Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Note: I applied the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

* “Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom: U.S. Neighborhoods and Metropolitan Areas, 1993-2009,” Ferreira and Gyourko, 2011.

CLICK HERE to see the original Case-Shiller charts that use 2000 as the baseline year.

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