Note. April 2021 data is the latest available from Case-Shiller as I write this on June 29, 2021. The data is a 3-month moving average so what they call April is really the February-April average.
- Click on images to see full-size, interactive versions
- See all 20 Case-Shiller graphs.
USA – Up 15%
U.S. 12-month house price appreciation was the highest since at least 1988, the earliest Case-Shiller data. The 12-month price increase in April was slightly higher than September 2005 which was the peak of the Great Real Estate Bubble.
New Record Home Price Appreciation (12-mo. Nominal)
5 cities also set new appreciation records, at least since Case-Shiller started keeping records for those cities.
- Seattle – Up 20%
- Dallas – Up 16%
- Denver – Up 15%
- Charlotte – Up 15%
- Cleveland – Up 13%
However, none of those 5 cities were “Bubble” cities during the Great Real Estate Bubble.
Metro Markets More Synchronized
This reflects the trend of U.S. real estate markets becoming more synchronized.
In the S&L real estate bubble of the late 1980’s, pretty much only cities in the Northeast and California had bubbles. In fact, Texas house prices were still falling while prices were increasing fast in the Northeast and California.
During the mid-2000s, however, more cities were caught up in the real estate bubble and no cities had falling prices at the same time.
House Price Appreciation – Real
Phoenix houses continue to appreciate faster than in any of the other metro areas covered by Case-Shiller. Real, inflation-adjusted house prices increased 16% over the previous 12 months in Phoenix AZ.
For the U.S. as a whole, real, inflation-adjusted house prices went up 9% from April 2020 to April 2021.
House Price Momentum – Nominal
U.S. house prices have HUGE upward momentum. For the U.S. as a whole, nominal house prices increased 10 percentage points faster in the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months.
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the USA is now 249 which means nationally single-family houses have appreciated 149% since January 2000 (nominal prices of homes of the same quality over time).
Amount You Can Borrow / $1 Peaked in January
When interest rates fall you can borrow more money with the same monthly (principal & interest) mortgage payment.
How Much You Can Borrow with a $1,000 per Month P&I Mortgage Payment
- Jan 7, 2021 = $248,000
- Jun 22, 2021 = $237,000
It’s another way prices are increasing.
Real Monthly Mortgage Payment Price Index
When you adjust the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for both inflation AND mortgage rates, you can see that house prices aren’t so crazy high.
Prices are a little above 1990. But then again, 1990 was near the top of the S&L Bubble. Prices by this measure did fall for a few years after 1990 and then they were more or less flat for several years.
You can see this price skyrocketing in 2021. House prices were increasing in late 2020 but mortgage rates were falling. Since January of 2021, however, house prices are increasing fast and they aren’t being offset at all by lower mortgage interest rates anymore.
Note. You can find interactive versions of most of these charts charts here.