Real Estate Decoded -

January 18, 2020

The Hidden Reason Why House Prices Are Too High (And Income Growth Is Too Low) — Appraisal Creep

Does the typical appraisal protect you from overpaying for a house? If it doesn’t, what would that mean for house prices in general?

No House Price Appreciation In New York, Los Angeles, Chicago Or San Francisco

Real house prices fell in metropolitan San Francisco, Chicago and New York from 12 months earlier.

January 15, 2020

The Surprising Way Real Estate Agents Are Adapting To "iBuyers" Buying Houses Directly From Sellers

One of the biggest trends in the residential real estate industry in recent years has been the introduction of the so-called “iBuyer” companies that buy houses directly from homeowners and then immediately resell them.

July 14, 2019

Sen. Kamala Harris Proposes $100 Billion Reverse Redlining Housing Program

Democratic presidential candidate Senator Kamala Harris proposed a $100 billion program for “homebuyers who rent or live in historically red-lined communities.”

July 13, 2019

3 Ways To Stop The Next Real Estate Crash & Save The Fed A Trillion Dollars

Did you know that for the same amount of money the Federal Reserve spent on buying mortgage-backed securities from Wall Street banks they could have bought ALL U.S. homes foreclosed on from 2006-2013? For the same cost the Fed could have stopped house prices from crashing and stopped the recession from becoming the worst since the Great Depression.

July 6, 2019

Zillow Zestimate Accuracy Calculator – 2019

In June 2019, Zillow made a major update to how they calculate Zestimates for houses listed for sale. In addition, they now report the accuracy of the Zestimates for houses “Listed for Sale” separately from houses “Not Listed For Sale.” Check out this post for more details. Here’s a post from 2018 with a discussion…

July 6, 2019

New Zillow Zestimate Accuracy – 2019

Zillow just updated its Zestimates of house values and using new technology improved the accuracy of its estimates for houses that are listed for sale.

July 6, 2019

California House Prices Fall (Inflation-Adjusted)

Inflation-adjusted house prices fell in four West Coast metros and Chicago from April 2018 to April 2019.

June 15, 2019

History Of American Real Estate Bubbles

From land speculation in New York state after the Revolutionary War, to a huge bubble in Chicago in the 1830s, to our 21st century bubble, the United States has always been a nation of real estate speculators…

June 6, 2019

Real House Prices DOWN In These 5 Cities Over The Last 12 Months

The stock market bounced back from its December lows but house price increases continued to shrink and real, inflation-adjusted prices actually fell (slightly) over the last 12 months in five of the 20 major metro areas covered by Case-Shiller data. That’s what I found when I applied the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) to the S&P…

June 1, 2019

New Study Of Old Real Estate Bubbles (1582-1810) Finds Two Surprising Similarities With Modern Bubbles

Amsterdam had three large real estate bubbles from 1582 to 1810. The real estate market was entirely different 200-400 years ago but those Amsterdam bubbles shared at least two similarities with modern real estate bubbles.

May 23, 2019

50 Years of Failure – U.S. Affordable Housing Programs and the Black Home Ownership Rate

(Parts of earlier versions of this piece appeared on Forbes.com here and here.) You may have seen stories in April about the Fair Housing Act being signed 51 years ago on April 11, 1968. The Act outlawed housing discrimination based on race, color, religion, and national origin. As a real estate numbers geek, I was…

March 30, 2019

Real San Diego Home Prices Fall

Of 20 major metropolitan areas, 16 saw smaller house price increases in the last 12 months than during the previous 12.

March 30, 2019

The Debt Shift Theory Of The Global Financial Crisis And The Great Real Estate Bubble

Bank lending is a key to economic growth but what happens to the economy when there’s a shift in the kind of loans that banks make and a shift in debt?

March 10, 2019

Links – Mar. 10, 2019

USA Metro Denver home prices drop in February for first time in 7 years Oregon governor signs statewide rent control law Toll Brothers Orders Plunge as California Buyers Vanish People are buying less at Home Depot: Is this another sign the housing market is cooling down? JPMorgan Chase investor slide explains mortgage-business slump Contrary to…

March 6, 2019

U.S. Home Price Appreciation Continues to Slow

Home price appreciation continued to be strong in December but not nearly as strong as last spring. The big question is whether this is a healthy reset of home price appreciation to lower, more sustainable levels, or whether home price appreciation will continue to shrink. U.S. home prices were up 4.7% in December (compared to…

February 23, 2019

Links – Feb. 22, 2019

USA Calabria talks GSE reform, 30-year mortgages at Senate hearing – Scotsman Guide For First Time in 5 Years, Buyers Have More Selection to Start the Year (January 2019 Market Report) – Zillow Research Experts say home equity is key to solving the country’s looming retirement crisis | 2019-02-18 | HousingWire The 10 Most Common…

February 16, 2019

Links – Feb. 16, 2019

USA A Denver attorney and the Lehman mortgage mess that contributed to the Great Recession Housing Finance At A Glance: A Monthly Chartbook, January 2019 | Full Report | Urban Institute Federal Tax Deductions for Homeowners Change in 2019 Mapped: ZIP-by-ZIP data as Orange County home sales plummet 26% – Orange County Register Historic Mortgage Rates: From 1981 to 2019 and Their Impact – TheStreet Fannie-Freddie Watchdog Gets More Cautious on Firms’ Release Home values see largest single-month decline since 2012 | 2019-02-04 | HousingWire CoreLogic: Home prices inch forward in December | 2019-02-05 | HousingWire Why 2019 Promises to Be Better for Buyers | Realtor Magazine Homebuying Patterns: Affordability,…

February 8, 2019

Links – February 8, 2019

USA Help Me Understand Mortgage Servicing | Urban Institute It’s time for a Fannie-Freddie fix – Washington Post How ‘unaffordable’ is Southern California housing? – Orange County Register Bain Capital Execs: iBuyers Are Foes Of Brokers And Homebuyers – Inman Seven questions for Janet Yellen on financial stability – Brookings Slower Economic Growth Expected in 2019, but a Patient Fed Could Put Housing on Firmer Footing | Fannie Mae National Housing Survey | Fannie Mae ‘Tides Are Shifting’: Is A Homebuyer’s Market On The Horizon? Forbes If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leaving? – Curbed SF OECD Economic Survey of the United States: Key Research Findings | READ online Where the Inventory…

February 7, 2019

West Coast Home Price Appreciation Returns To Earth

The wild West Coast home price appreciation party seems to be winding down. After the incredibly strong home price gains over the last six years in San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Los Angeles and San Diego, home prices were up “only” 3% to 6% over the last 12 months.