The July 2020 data is the latest available from Case-Shiller as I write this on September 29. The data is a 3-month moving average so what they call July is really the May-July average. The data for Detroit have not been updated for months.
Since July 2019, house prices in Phoenix have been appreciating faster than in any of the other 20 metros covered by Case-Shiller. Real, inflation-adjusted house prices increased 8% over the last year in Phoenix.
For the U.S. as a whole, real, inflation adjusted house prices were up 4%.
Tell me in the “Comments” what you think.
House Price Momentum
House prices continued to gain upward momentum in July. Nominal house prices increased more over the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months in 13 cities covered by Case-Shiller. Prices increased more slowly in only 2 metros, Chicago and Las Vegas.
For the U.S. as a whole, nominal house prices were up 5% from July 2019 to July 2020 but they only increased 2% from July 2018 to July 2019 so U.S. house prices were gaining upward price momentum.
Home Prices
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is not showing the rapid price rises we’re seeing in other indexes. Part of it is because these July Case-Shiller numbers are really May-July averages. Next month’s price increases should be strong when Case-Shiller replaces the weak month of May 2020 and adds the super strong month of August 2020.
Price Appreciation
Phoenix had 9% 12-month house (nominal) price appreciation.
Seattle was #2 with 7% appreciation. Charlotte and Tampa were tied for #3 at 5% annual appreciation in July.
Mortgage Rates Fall 2 Percentage Points Since November 2018
You can see from the interactive graph below that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate hit 4.9% in November 2018. Now, it’s 2.9%. That’s why house sales and house prices have increased so rapidly despite the recession and the ongoing pandemic. House prices have a ton of upward momentum behind them after 2 years of, more or less, constantly falling mortgage interest rates.
Is there any product more sensitive to interest rates than houses? Let me know in the comments.
To see more about the wild Phoenix housing market, check out my other website, Arizona Real Estate Notebook.
Note. You can find interactive versions of these charts for all 20 Case-Shiller metros here.
Note. This post was written on September 29, 2020 but the interactive graphs will be continually updated.