(I just updated the Case-Shiller graphs.)
Annual Home Appreciation
Dec 2014 – Dec 2015
Most Appreciation (within the 20 cities)
- Portland = +11.4%
- San Francisco = +10.3%
- Denver = +10.2%
December is a slow month.
However, if you see a city that is usually down in December that is up this December, that would be very bullish for home prices in 2016 but I haven’t notice any. Let me know in a comment if you do.
I’m anxiously waiting for the high season to begin so I can see which cities have changing trends.
San Francisco Story
San Francisco actually fell slightly from November to December but that’s not unusual for that time of year in San Francisco.
One of the most interesting stories of 2016 will be San Francisco. The tech bubble is deflating, the Chinese economy isn’t as strong as it was so Chinese citizens may buy fewer homes in San Francisco. All the surprises for San Francisco have been on the downside the past several months.
I expect San Francisco home prices will level off sometime this year. However, the time lags between cause and effect in real estate are huge so we may not see any impact for a while.
Once we have March numbers, we’ll have a good idea of the strength of the San Francisco housing market is. Is the bad tech news having an impact yet or is inertia still driving the market? Will other unexpected economic events move the market?
But with Case-Shiller’s own time lags, we won’t have those March numbers until May.
Data Table – 20 Cities
Full S&P Case-Shiller press release (pdf).
ADDED LATER: Is San Francisco in a housing bubble?