Is Texas More Liberal Than London!
Comparing London to Texas property taxes. It started out as a simple idea. I just wanted to know if London had high or low property taxes than Texas.Read more
Update on "Percent of Homes Increasing in Value"
I’m was trying to peek around corners a bit with this idea of looking at Zillow’s dataset of percent of homes that are increasing in value. Zillow doesn’t publish these graphs themselves but they do publish the raw data so I took that data and made these graphs. Zillow looks at their Zestimates for all homes…Read more
My Customized Case-Shiller Charts
One of the unique things I do here at RealEstateDecoded.com is that I publish an INFLATION-ADJUSTED Case-Shiller Home Price Index. You can see what’s really going on with home prices by looking at the Real, Inflation-Adjusted Case-Shiller Home Price Index.Read more
Buy Like Barack! Buy the House You’re Renting
The Washington Post reported recently that Barack and Michelle Obama bought the house they had been renting. That was serendipitous for me because I’ve been working for a crazy number of months on an online course called, “Buying the House You Rent.” Nice timing, Barack! Thank you! One of the authors of the original story…Read more
2017 Forecast – U.S. Housing Market
It looks like 2017 will be a transition year for the U.S. residential real estate market. Stock Market. I’ll forecast that the stock market continues more or less sideways but ends the year a lot weaker than it starts. Talk of a coming recession increases. Consumer. Employment and consumer spending continue strong in 2017 but before the end of the year unemployment stops falling. As consumer spending increases less, the economy increases less. San Francisco. The number of home sales in metro San Francisco will fall although prices won’t fall as much as sales. Unless we have another tech boom or foreign buyer boom, San Francisco home prices will likely…Read more
Advice Wanted: Family Losing $1000/mo On Condo
Dear Readers, I got a very moving email from a reader this week. They are taking a $1,000 a month loss on a condo they bought in California in 2006. But now we are just a ticking time bomb… My retirement savings will likely be less, my assets fewer, my children’s college loans greater… and on and on. This issue is beyond my area of expertise. So, I would really appreciate it if any of my personal finance blogger friends could offer her some helpful advice. Please leave your advice in a comment so she can read it. Thank You! John ———- Begin Email ———- Hello Mr. Wake, “The Big Short”…Read more
Will San Francisco Home Prices Fall This Fall?
I think so. San Francisco home prices have gone up an average of 18% a year since 2012! Using the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index, San Francisco home prices are up a total of 84% since 2012. Nominal San Francisco home prices are now higher than they were at the peak of The Great Real Estate Bubble in 2006. But now it looks like San Francisco’s residential real estate market has lost its upward mojo. Compare the home prices for the 5 West Coast cities covered by the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. U.S. West Coast Home Price Increases From April to July Portland = 4% Seattle = 3% Las Angeles…Read more
San Francisco Housing Bubble 2016
Current supply is determined by current prices AND expected future prices. If you ever wondered why the supply of homes for sale in San Francisco is so tight even though San Francisco home prices are so high, this video is for you! San Francisco: Case-Shiller & Zillow Percentage of Homes Increasing in Value The most interesting change this month was in San Francisco, that’s why I made this post about San Francisco. You can see that the Case-Shiller home price index for San Francisco (blue line) is losing a lot of its steep upward momentum. Also notice that home prices have a huge tendency to increase in the first part…Read more
EXCLUSIVE: Percent Of Homes Increasing In Value – Vegas and SF Losing Mojo
You won’t see these graphs of Zillow data anywhere else online. They’re not even on Zillow.com, even though I get the raw data from Zillow. “Percent of Homes Increasing in Value” is another way to look at how strong prices are in a city. Theoretically, it can help us peek around the corner a bit. High and Rising Tampa Boston Atlanta Charlotte Minneapolis Full size High and Flat Portland Seattle Denver Dallas Phoenix Miami San Diego Los Angeles Detroit Full size High and Falling San Francisco Las Vegas Full size Neutral and Rising None Neutral and Flat Chicago Washington DC Full size Neutral and Falling New York Cleveland Full size…Read more
San Francisco Home Prices Peak? (Case-Shiller)
The San Francisco real estate market is changing orbit. May is part of San Francisco’s high season and home prices typically increase strongly. This year the home price index was flat in May and actually fell on an inflation-adjusted basis. San Francisco Home Price Index April to May 2012: +3.9% 2013: +4.3% 2014: +1.2% 2015: +1.3% 2016: +0.1% For prices to move against a very strong seasonal upward trend must reflect a very strong underlying downward trend. It’s only one month but that’s a huge red flag for me. I’ve felt San Francisco home prices were too high for a long time. Here’s my take on the San Francisco real…Read more
Zillow’s Typical Error Is $18,000 (2019)
UPDATE July 2019: Zillow changed how they calculate median errors. They now calculate the median error of their Zestimates for houses “not listed for sale” separately from houses “listed for sale.” Nationally, the typical error is $18,000 for houses that are not listed for sale.UPDATE: Zillow greatly improved the accuracy of their Zestimates in June 2016 so I updated this post in July 2016. Post was originally published in July 2015. Note: I haven’t updated the video to reflect Zillow’s 2016 improvment in accuracy or the 2019 changes. The Problem You have a home for sale and Zillow’s Zestimate for the house is way too low. To make matters worse,…Read more
How Far Off ($) is the Typical Zillow Home Value Estimate in Your Area?
Zillow publishes the median percentage error of their Zestimates but I think it’s a lot easier to think in dollars rather than in percentages. So I converted the published Zestimate percentage errors into dollar errors for 25 U.S. metro areas and the U.S. as a whole.Read more
The Return of Shadow Inventory?
Remember when “shadow inventory” was going to eat the world? In 2010-2013, everyone was talking about how real estate investors were going to dump their homes on the market and it was going to cause “another leg down” in home prices? It never happened. By the summer of 2011, it was clear (to a few of us, anyway) that the number of homes in the foreclosure pipeline was shrinking fast, that foreclosures would eventually fall dramatically and home prices would rebound. I sure hope this Blackstone news doesn’t trigger another round “shadow inventory” hysteria. Back to You Hey, I wonder if we can start a better urban myth? If you…Read more
Large Landlord Selling Homes to Tenants
Did Blackstone Just Call A Market Top? The famous single family home investor, Blackstone Group, has started to sell some of their homes to their tenants, according to this article in Bloomberg. “Invitation Homes [part of Blackstone] started selling houses to renters in Phoenix and Sacramento, California, this year, with plans to expand the program… in all 14 of its markets across the U.S. in the next few months.” That sounds like it could be a great program for many of their tenants. I like it! Worried But I’m a little worried. Does that mean Blackstone is less optimistic about single family home appreciation going forward? Do they know something about…Read more
Case-Shiller and Zillow – June Home Price Report
The biggest story in U.S. home prices right now is how the San Francisco market is cooling off after being white hot for years. A lot of these cities are hitting their high season. It’ll be fun to see what happens. Case-Shiller – April 2015 to April 2016 Case-Shiller covers 20 U.S. cities. Most Appreciation Portland = +12.3% Seattle = +10.7% Denver = +9.5% Portland is even hotter this month. It’s kind of scary hot. San Francisco continues to cool. It’s now tied with Tampa for 5th place. If you own a home in San Francisco and were on the fence about selling, I’d say SELL! Least Appreciation Washington DC =…Read more
What If No Las Vegas Bubble? Where Would Home Prices Be Today?
A subscriber to Real Estate Decoded emailed me the original idea for this post. Thanks, Hal! What would have happened if we didn’t have real estate bubbles in Las Vegas and Phoenix? According to many economists, both cities had “contagion” bubbles, bubbles that spread from California. Las Vegas and Phoenix didn’t really have the economic fundamentals for a real estate bubble but a vast amount of money flowed from California into Las Vegas and Phoenix real estate triggering their bubbles. Home price increases in LA sort of pulled up home prices, first in Las Vegas and then in Phoenix. “Hi, I’m Calling From California” As a real estate agent in Phoenix…Read more
Inflation-Adjusted Real Estate Bubble Charts
Catch the Inflation-Adjusted Real Estate Bubble Case-Shiller Price Index Charts for New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and 17 other cities HERE! ###Read more
Affordable Mortgages vs. Sustainable Mortgages
During my recent “Real Estate Bubble Explained” project, I found it was common for lenders to brag about their affordable mortgages. They were talking about their subprime mortgages. Anything that let more people buy homes back then was considered to be a good thing. Mortgages that would have been branded as predatory in earlier times…Read more
Housing Bubble in 18 Pictures
Here are some of the cool graphics related to the Great Real Estate Bubble that I didn’t end up using in this post. The source is on each graphic, if you want to do more research yourself. Click images to enlarge. ###Read more
Foreclosure Maps 2007 and 2009
Click images to enlarge. Nice clear presentation of foreclosures in June 2009 (via Kevin Erdmann). More info on the Great Real Estate Bubble.Read more